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CALGARY — Canadian oil producers have some ability to immediately increase exports to the United States, industry insiders and analysts say, but whatever they can provide in the short term won’t be enough to fill the gap. the void left by Russia.

Following U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision on Tuesday to ban the import of Russian energy products, some have called for a greater role for Canadian oil and gas.

In Houston, Texas, where he was attending the CERAWeek international energy conference, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said he was spreading the message that his oil-producing province is ready and willing to help the United States meet its energy needs.

“Instead of replacing Russia’s conflict oil with Saudi Arabia’s, Iran’s and Venezuela’s conflict oil, work with us,” Kenney tweeted Tuesday. “Alberta is the solution.

In recent days, Kenney also called on Biden to reinstate approval for the Keystone XL pipeline project, which Biden canceled shortly after its inauguration, in order to increase Canadian oil exports south of the border.

According to figures from the US Energy Information Administration, the United States imported nearly 700,000 barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products from Russia in 2021.

The United States imported far more than that from Canada, almost 4.3 million barrels per day.

Tristan Goodman, president of the industry group of the Association of Explorers and Producers of Canada, said that this country has the capacity to increase this number immediately, either through existing pipeline networks or through crude oil shipments. by rail.

“There is an immediate possibility to add some degree of production, and I mean immediate – weeks to months. It will be a small amount, but it will be noticeable,” Goodman said.

However, Goodman said that due to underinvestment in pipeline infrastructure and the Canadian energy sector as a whole in recent years, the maximum Canada could expect to supply would be a maximum of 400,000 barrels per day, “if we’re lucky”.

“Can we help? Yes. Will this be the miracle solution to replace all Russian crude production destined for the United States? No,” he said.

On Tuesday, the White House said it had already pledged to release more than 90 million barrels from its strategic reserves in the current fiscal year, as well as an emergency sale of 30 million barrels this week. last.

Members of the International Energy Agency also agreed to a collective release of an additional 30 million barrels.

Kevin Birn, a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and chief Canadian oil market analyst for IHS Markit, said the immediate need in the United States will likely be met by stocks, strategic oil reserves and member countries. of OPEC.

“Canada is capable of producing a lot more oil, but it just won’t be able to be the first to respond to that,” Birn said. “To steadily increase supply, Canada would need time.

While Canadian oil sands producers have operated near full capacity so far in 2022, they may consider postponing scheduled maintenance projects this spring in a bid to increase production and take advantage of record prices, said Richard Masson, executive member of the University of Calgary. School of Public Policy.

“But oil sands projects don’t easily scale up production — it takes time,” Masson said.

Where the industry can move quickly, Masson said, is in the conventional drilling sector. But even there, the significant labor shortage that has plagued the industry this year may make it difficult to staff rigs and drill more wells quickly.

“Practically, it’s going to be a real challenge,” he said. “We just don’t have the supply chains to deliver this quickly.”

In recent years, oil producers in Canada and around the world have focused on paying down debt and increasing shareholder dividends, and investors have little appetite for major capital projects or expansion of the industry, added Masson.

“We had a bunch of years where we just didn’t invest a lot, and that’s why the price was so high even before (Ukraine),” he said.

“It’s not like there’s a lot of capacity available anywhere, so turning on the tap now is going to be really tough.”

— With files from James McCarten in Washington

This report from The Canadian Press was first published on March 8, 2022.

Amanda Stephenson, The Canadian Press