Learning from big innovations in small island states – World

By Devan Kreisberg, Naraya Carrasco, Denis Jordy and Alessio Giardino

If we’ve learned anything from our modern age, it’s that the smallest changes can be extremely powerful. From DNA molecules to microprocessors, the “little ones” can have a big impact.

The same is true for small island developing states (SIDS), which represent less than 1% of the world’s population. They are also among the most vulnerable countries in the world to disasters and climate change. Among the countries most affected by disasters in relation to GDP, two thirds are small island states, with _annual_ losses ranging between 1 and 9% of GDP on average.

However, even these numbers are misleading, as a single disaster can cripple an island’s entire economy. Without tropical cyclones, for example, the Jamaican economy could have grown by up to 4% per year; instead, over the past 40 years it has grown by 0.8% per year. Sometimes growth is wiped out in one fell swoop: when Hurricane Maria hit Dominica last year, it caused damage and losses equivalent to 220% of the country’s GDP.

Climate change and sea level rise will not improve the situation. In the Marshall Islands, for example, the number of people affected by a disaster each year could double by the end of the century, and the expected annual damage could increase three or four times. If the sea level rises only one meter, the Maldives will disappear entirely.

But what we learn from these small, isolated and highly exposed islands could be useful to millions of people around the world.

While their size makes SIDS vulnerable, it also makes them ideal for piloting comprehensive analytical tools and innovative methodologies that help us understand climate and disaster risk and design resilience strategies. Effective tools and methodologies can then be applied to larger countries or larger regions facing similar challenges, especially coastal areas.

For example, a local-level multiple hazard assessment on Ebeye Island in the Marshall Islands modeled the impact of flooding, erosion and sea level rise on the island. Using an innovative method, he also analyzed the effectiveness of response options – a method that could be extended to other coastal countries.

In import-dependent Tuvalu, a local study is determining the best place to build the country’s first seaport by analyzing everything from wave patterns to long-term climate prospects. These techniques also have broader applications.

At the national level, a climate vulnerability assessment, the first of its kind in Fiji, piloted a methodology to assess vulnerability to climate and disasters, and to design strategies that will help the country adapt to climate change and manage disaster risk. The report, which was supported by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the World Bank, will inform Fiji’s development decisions for the next decade. The assessment took into account not only the reduction of economic losses, but also the impact of disasters on the well-being of the populations, and led to a comprehensive and climate-resilient investment plan that covers all economic sectors. .

Fiji is not the only country that can benefit from a risk assessment that helps plan for the next 10 years. The team that developed the methodology is modifying it to replicate it on other islands and apply it to larger countries. When completed, it will be an adaptable and flexible methodology that will help governments determine their current vulnerabilities, the steps they need to take to address those vulnerabilities, and their resilience priorities.

The experiences of Fiji, the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu – all of which show how SIDS can serve as a testing ground for bold new ways of analyzing disaster and climate risk – will be discussed at the upcoming Understanding Forum Risk Assessment 2018 in Mexico City, at a technical session organized by GFDRR, Deltares and the Joint Research Center of the European Commission. The session will present the methods and results of several recent risk analyzes that have helped SIDS make informed development and resilience decisions, and discuss how they can be applied around the world.

These case studies show how a smart combination of global data, local information and adaptive approaches can produce powerful tools – tools that generate the vital risk information that enables decision-makers to build their countries’ resilience. But above all, they show the rest of the world the interest in helping to strengthen the resilience of SIDS, the nations most exposed to the planet’s risks.

As Enele Sopoaga, the Prime Minister of Tuvalu said, “If we save Tuvalu, Tuvalu will save the world”.

Now _that’s_ the power of the little one.