Once covid-free, this island nation braces for 5,000 cases a week

Department of Health modeling predicts more than 5,000 cases per week in the Auckland and Northland regions next year, even assuming 90% of the eligible population is vaccinated, the health minister said on Thursday Andrew Little. The figure does not include the rest of the country, where modeling is still ongoing.

“It’s the worst case scenario, but even at this level the vast majority of people who become infected will recover at home, or elsewhere in the community, as the majority will be vaccinated and not suffer as badly as those who are not. not vaccinated,” Little said in an interview with Radio New Zealand.

New Zealand’s health system has yet to be tested by a rise in Covid cases, but ministers are now admitting a lockdown in the biggest city of Auckland won’t beat the delta’s infectious strain and are preparing ease restrictions as vaccination rates increase. The daily number of new cases is worsening, with 71 infections reported on Thursday, the most since early September.

For most of 2020 and much of this year, as many countries retreated as the virus tore populations apart, New Zealanders were able to enjoy life largely without restrictions after the successful elimination of community transmission. Concerts were held, rugby matches continued, bars and restaurants were open, children were going to school and apart from the border closing, life seemed normal.

But the delta variant put an end to all that. In August, a single positive case led to a nationwide lockdown at the strictest level. More than eight weeks later, Auckland is still confined, but the delta continues to circulate. The virus has recently infiltrated the neighboring regions of Northland and Waikato, leading to further closures.

With only around 60% of the eligible population fully vaccinated, the government is racing to vaccinate as many people as possible before the outbreak spreads further.

Little’s plan moves away from isolating all Covid patients in government quarantine facilities or hospitals. The Minister expressed confidence that hospitals will have the capacity to deal with acute cases.

“In terms of being able to respond to additional patients, I’m confident it’s there and the planning is there to make sure we handle that carefully,” he told a news conference. .

Little did not set a date when the plan would be introduced, saying it depended on vaccination rates.

The slow rollout of the vaccine in New Zealand has seen it fall in Bloomberg’s Covid resilience ranking. For a long time it held the number one spot; it is now 38th, one place ahead of Bangladesh.

Yet only 28 people have died from Covid so far.

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